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Astron. Astrophys. 348, L59-L61 (1999)

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Letter to the Editor

Longterm prediction of solar activity using Moscow Neutron Monitor Pressure-Corrected Values

K.J. Li 1,2 and X.M. Gu 1,3

1 Yunnan Observatory, CAS, 650011 Kunming, P.R. China
2 National Astronomical Observatories, CAS
3 United Laboratory of Optical Astronomy, CAS

Received 28 June 1999 / Accepted 14 July 1999


In this paper, we use a function similar to the Planck function to reproduce the Moscow Neutron Monitor Pressure-Corrected Values of the time January 1958 to December 1998 and then give the predicted values after the year 1998. This kind of the values is found to be anticorrelated with sunspot numbers at a very high level when the value series has a backward phase shift of 7 months. An attempt to predict solar activity of solar cycle 23 has been done. For solar cycle 23, we predict that solar activity should peak at the year 2001.7 with a maximum amplitude of about 151.1 (in terms of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number).

Key words: Sun: sunspots – Sun: activity

Send offprint requests to: K.J. Li

© European Southern Observatory (ESO) 1999

Online publication: August 13, 199