 
Astron. Astrophys. 344, 721734 (1999)
Appendix A: getting a feel for it
The likelihood of a given cosmological model for a given set of
observational data, calculated using Eq. (3), is the result of the
complex interplay of many factors. While this is necessary for a
detailed analysis, it perhaps obscures the fact that the likelihood is
basically the product of two terms, the likelihood that the nonlenses
in our sample are not lenses (see Fig. A1) and the likelihood that the
lenses in our sample (see Fig. A2) have the observed
properties. ^{6} The
latter in turn is the result of two basic effects: the dependency of
the volume element on
and
(see Fig. A3) and the dependency on the lensing cross section on
and
(see Fig. A4). One can also use the probability that the nonlenses in
our sample are not lenses (illustrated in Fig. A1) to calculate the
expected number of lenses in our sample (see Fig. A5), although
obviously just counting the number of lenses does not make use of as
much of the available information as does using Eq. (3).

Fig. A1. Likelihood that the nonlenses in our sample are not lenses. The contour levels mark changes of a factor of ten in the probability, which is also indicated by the grey scale, darker values corresponding to higher values


Fig. A2. Likelihood that the lenses in our sample have the properties they do. The contour levels mark changes of a factor of ten in the probability, which is also indicated by the grey scale, darker values corresponding to higher values


Fig. A3. The volume element at the typical lens galaxy redshift . The contours indicate the fraction of the volume element in the limiting case of the de Sitter model (, ). This is also indicated by the grey scale, darker values corresponding to a larger volume. For smaller redshifts the contours are more vertical (and further apart), for larger redshifts more horizontal (cf. Fig. 3 of Tegmark et al. (1998b) but note their swapped axes)


Fig. A4. Cross section for the softened singular isothermal sphere model used in this work for a typical lens redshift and a typical source redshift for the fiducial values and (see Sect. 4). The contours indicate the fraction of the cross section in the limiting case of the de Sitter model (, ). This is also indicated by the grey scale, darker values corresponding to a larger cross section


Fig. A5. Expected number of lenses. Contours, from left to right, indicate 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 lenses. Darker values of the grey scale correspond to higher values. Cf. Cooray et al. (1999) and Cooray (1999) where the number of lenses as a function of and has been calculated for the Hubble Deep Field and for CLASS

© European Southern Observatory (ESO) 1999
Online publication: March 29, 1999
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